[quote=livinincali][quote=HLS]Tax laws can change at any time. IRA/401K is not a guarantee of anything other than risk.
The stock market is a legalized casino.
I’m amazed in the faith that exists believing that
this manipulated, unproven system is the security blanket for tens of millions of people.
There is a chance that the stock market will collapse and the fallout will be far, far worse than what happened in 2008, which to me was no surprise and expected.
Most of the experts would just say that ‘nobody saw this coming'[/quote]
At the macro level the demographics say everybody should see the coming issues. The stock market at a macro level will fall because the supply demand imbalance caused by boomers in 401Ks is going to switch from net inflows to net outflows. It’s just a matter of time. When that shift occurs there will be a much higher supply of assets for sale versus the demand for the next generation to purchase them.
It will probably occur in real estate as well.
Boomers are in the peak asset collection years right now. Asset prices are high because of that demand. Leverage makes the problem worse but even without it the problem would still exist.[/quote]
Totally agree with both of you on this.
And for those who haven’t seen it, yet:
“The point is that there is beaucoup leverage today, and it is among the professionals and corporations. Clearly, the chart below sent from a fellow trader around a week ago shows that someone is on margin.”
But is that money circulating through the economy? No, not at this time. Contrary to the trickle-down myth propagated by those at the top, when money is fed to the top of the economic pyramid, it tends to stay there.
These extremes suggest to me that something is going to transition in the near future. How that happens is anyone’s guess, but I think that the major deflationary currents that the Fed has been fighting so hard are about to become more visible, once again. And this time, it has the potential to be much worse, IMHO, because all the Fed/govt’s ammo is low and we are more leveraged in many ways than we’ve ever been in the past.
