leung_lewis, I truly appreciate your generosity in sharing your results with us. This took a long time to figure out. Very interesting stuff.
What is most noteworthy is this:
1) we’ve never gone into a recession during the mid-year cycle, so the pattern may not hold this year
2) every rally came from a low, and was preceeded a by a long bear market. This is clearly not the case.
To me, it looks like this year is different. Our economy is different now. We are truly at a breaking point. We traded in our productivity, and investment in education and research and development to foreign financed consumption and debt creation.
There are many other factors which could have made these past rallies work: falling interest rates, strong dollar, low inflation. Maybe you need all these to line up to get the mid-year rally.