I’m curious why you say “Obviously, I can’t refi now since it isn’t my primary anymore” ?? (Of course you can)
I’m like MONK when it comes to this stuff. Your figures are pretty good.
If you started with $322K and a 5 YR ARM, Your P&I payment @ 4.125% should be $1560.
After 5 years your balance will be down to $300,094 and IF you have a 2% increase, at 6.125% your new payment will be $1956, about $400 a month higher (+25%) but that may only be for 6 months (or 12) depending on your loan, and then it increases again each 6 or 12 mos.
Since you bought in ’03, you should have equity, and rental income that covers the nut, or comes close.
There are people that can barely afford their payment now, and a 25% increase would be the nail in their coffin.