I suspect you meant “PR” not “PD”. PD is a dignified Coronado resident on this blog. Unfortunately, I don’t fit that description at all!
You are strongly convinced that prices will drop a lot. By 50%? 60%? Fair enough. Whatever it is, I’m just trying to tease out from you what your reasoning is, and that of others with similar opinions, by presenting some of the more obvious obstacles to that outcome. Why would I do that? Because I don’t know everything, and maybe something you know and share would help me make a better analysis and, ultimately, buying decision. That’s the alpha and omega of my agenda here.
Am I claiming that I am a superior paragon of rational analysis, then? No, I want to get the analysis right for my own sake, and I find I do that best when I set my emotions to the side. BTW, my emotions say that house prices are ridiculously high, driven there by loose credit that I hate because it rewards borrowers, especially ones who won’t pay if things go upside down, at the expense of savers like me, and I dearly hope for a drop of at least 50%, because then home prices would be – just barely – low enough for me to hold my nose and buy after 20 years of being priced out of the market where I live. My wish is that you or soemone else here will lay out a case that is so tight that I will have full faith in that 50%+ drop.
So cheer up, JWM, and don’t assume DaC or I are trying to pull the wool over your eyes. I have no motive and I’m not that smart! I gain only if prices drop, and the more the better. I don’t even mind a horrendous recession to get there. But until then I just want to see what the most likely outcomes are as clearly as possible, and fact- and reason-based exchange on this forum was a good way to improve my own insights on that.
