Just echoing what I’ve read that reflects what I am actually observing. I tend to agree with Van Eeden about a good price for gold at around $760. But it could be a very good bubble play for the next year. So I am sitting tight at 30% of my portfolio.
As for other currencies…take a look at the coveted Euro or Renminbi. These currencies and the underlying economics are fragile in their own ways. The Euro is no great shakes. Just check out the FT on a daily basis, big bank failures are on the way and RE bubbles a bursting. China is down to 2% internal GDP(ex exports). So without exports, it’s facing public unrest and very high unemployment. Their stock market is down 50% from it’s highs this year. This is a global melt-down and there aint no decoupling going on. Saudi’s are looking at global slow down for oil and price reductions are coming again.
It’s an interdependant world and the US$ happens to still carry the day. This may change in the next decade and probably will. But for now, it’s the game of choice. Fear rules the markets now.
I would also be careful of traditional technical analysis right now as it’s not working too well. This is history time, so I would lean on historic evidence to place my bets. It’s been uncanny how accurate this has been for the last year.
