[quote=joec]Homes are selling because for a lot of folks, they are buying the homes to live it.
If there is a very long, slow dragged out down period, people are just buying homes and living in them. You can wait 3 years, 5 years, 10 years or 20 years for this housing thing to play itself out, but no one knows when the true bottom will be and if the numbers work for you compared to rent, maybe it’s not the worst thing to buy. Unlike rent, in 15 or 30 years (depending on your loan terms), you’ll actually own the place and will have no housing expense (other than prop taxes and maintenance).
I know we did. Unlike stocks, unfortunately, you have to have a place to live and some folks simply get tired of renting with all the downsides of that.
Wasn’t there an article here about interest rates also not really affecting housing prices much in the 80s? Personally, I don’t buy that higher rates will insanely drive housing prices to collapse since it didn’t in the past and folks will probably find ways around it (perhaps creative financing where they assume your low 4-5% loan through some other contract) and everyone moves on their merry way…
Here’s the first link that google came out with on interest rates and housing prices I found. Some blog, but there are other graphs out there I think showing no huge correlation:
1. DTI ratios weren’t as high then as they are now.
2. Baby Boomers were in their peak buying years. As we move forward, they will be in their peak selling years.
3. We didn’t have the kind of public and private debt then that we do now. We are **maxed out** on debt. There is no more upward room.
4. Back then, there were real wage increases. Wages have zero traction today. We take what we can get, even if it’s 25-50% less that what we were making five years ago.
If housing prices go up from here, it will be due to a currency crisis, not because of a better standard of living or higher wages for Americans, IMHO.
