Job growth is always a lagging economic indicator. We’re in the late stages of what I like to call the “Obama Boom”, when Joe Six Pack finally starts to get his share of the growth.
“calling for a recesssion in the next few years” is like calling for rain sometime in the next few months. It’s such a big window it’s basically guaranteed to be true, and gives you zero information on if you should pack your umbrella today or not.
Those of us who closely watched this most recent bubble learned first hand that while markets are somewhat predictable, government actions can be all over the board. Predicting a specific policy response is kind of a fool’s errand.
I think this is where it all then comes back to fundamentals. Fundamentally San Diego county real estate is probably slightly overpriced right now. Someone looking to buy a home or investment property should tread very carefully. But rents arguably can support current prices in most areas. There’s still an untapped resevior of millenial basement dwellers who are bound to emerge sooner or later and prop up the rental market.
These sort of grand predictions can attract attention, but are often pure speculation.
