JJ,
Don’t dismay, very few people have the ability, interest and access to the information necessary to prove what I know to be true. The decline is between 10 to 20% from the peak in most areas and I believe there is another 10 to 20% coming though it will take longer to transgress. SD will always be expensive and this is the way I thought about it several years ago and what I recommend to my clients. It is how I ended up living my dream.
It will probably take you at least 3 purchases to get the house you really want. The key to getting there is buying at the right time AND buying the right houses along the way. The right houses will appreciate more relative to the market allowing you to make bigger jumps and will be more enjoyable places to live on stops along the road to the home they really dream of.