I do think its different this time. No reason to get into why. Its all been said by others.
Affordablity is based on relationship between median wage and house price.
Mid 90’s were the last time in SoCal they were even close to matching up.
Pendulum swings.
John[/quote]
I want to make it clear that I am not saying prices will not get down to 95 adjusted for inflation, or even lower.
If you go by historic means then 95/96 was the last bottom going back over 100 years. Note: these are prices adjusted for inflation and material/content, i.e. pricing of the same house with same features in 2005 and 1905. This is from a graph I saw on either the Atlantic or Economist website back in 04 I think. Of course this is a national average and not specific to San Diego.
Maybe San Diego did not always have a premium in terms of price/wage, but it’s been the case since I started attending UCSD in 86.
John, please at least give me a few links to the threads that discuss your reasoning. I don’t read all the thread and don’t remember this particular discussion.
Maybe the last 20+ years has been an anomaly and in 95/96 housing prices did not get back to the long term mean sufficiently, but that is not what I saw on that national graph.
Slightly OT but according to that inflation/content adjusted graph housing in the long term does not beat inflation.
