[quote=Jazzman]Username, you have asked the million dollar question. There is no clear definition of the shadow inventory, which might partly explain why it has been labeled a myth. I think your best bet would be to research current listings, and go back over several years. Estimates of the shadow inventory are wildly different …anything from 3-10 million, and it really will depend on what you include in that number. I like to think of it as any home that would ordinarily be on the market, but is not due to the housing bubble and the ensuing economic downturn. If you just include those homes which lenders are said to be hording, you are on a hiding to nothing. While their number may be large, the important thing is how many appear as listings at any given moment. Any home that has received a Notice of Default can potentially add to the number, and you can check that at http://www.foreclosureradar.com/ However, how many sellers have decided to forestall putting their homes on the market is unknown. One thing that is certain, is that inventory levels are low which a source of frustration for everyone. Some argue this will affect prices upwardly, but I think that is wishful thinking on behalf of the industry. Just as likely, is a flat to declining market due to buyers disgruntled with lack of quality homes to choose from.[/quote]
Jazzman, my understanding of “shadow inventory” is that is it comprised of those properties which have been defaulted upon (the “trustors” stopped making mortgage payments [1st TD, 2nd TD, 3rd TD or HELOC].) These properties do NOT necessarily have a Notice of Default filed against them.
This is why, in the absence of an NOD and a recent active or expired RE listing, one cannot really tell if a property is “distressed” and thus is potential “shadow inventory” just by looking at the amt and terms of its mtg at the recorder’s office.
Just because a home-debtor might be “underwater” does NOT mean they have defaulted or would default (whether by choice or necessity).
“Shadow inventory” does NOT include those “potential sellers” with equity who can wait for a better day to sell. Why? Because selling, for them, is NOT mandatory. It is a future wish, pipe dream or future need. They only become a serious seller when they put their property on the market and price it at or near what it would fetch today and reduce its price, if necessary, in order to get it sold. If they list it at a particular price to “test the market” and don’t get any offers they would accept and subsequently withdraw their listing, that property is STILL not “shadow inventory.”
And even if a homedebtor DOES default, they may live in “their” property “free” for MANY months (24+) before a NOD is even filed on them! During this time, someone looking at their trust deed(s) in the recorders office would have NO IDEA they were behind in their payments and how much they were behind.
Just because you see terms on a TD at the recorder’s office that YOU wouldn’t sign up for doesn’t mean that those terms are not agreeable to the parties that signed the TD. In the absence of an NOD and “distressed” listing, you would have no way of knowing if that “trustor” was making partial payments or had made a lump sum payment and was catching up with their lender or was in the middle of qualifying for a modification. There is no requirement in CA for mortgage modifications to be recorded.
For example, even after a NOD is filed, the trustors in question could be paying $1800 PI month by agreement with their lender when their TD on file with the public that they should be paying $2700 PI per month and you would have no way of knowing that by viewing the terms of their TD. These trustors may be on a trial or permanent mod program.
I would venture that, in recent years, more than half the NOD’s filed are never acted upon by their beneficiaries. That is, the “redemption period” never ends and there is never a posted trustee’s sale date.
And checking the recorder’s office does NOT reveal whether a property owner has been paying their property taxes on time. Even if they are making their PI pymnts, if their homeowner’s insurance premium is not impounded, they may not be paying that either. They could also be behind on homeowner’s dues and a potential buyer would not know this unless there is a lien filed by the HOA on that property. Even if there IS a lien filed, it doesn’t mean that arrears have not accrued SINCE a lien was filed or that the dues are in the process of being caught up or paid and the lien has not yet been released.
IMO, the only REAL “shadow inventory” that can be tracked is that which has an NOD filed. However, these properties could get very likely get stuck at this stage and never go to sale.
So, in sum, absent a HUD-1 for a closed “distressed” property or an official opening bid amount posted (for a TS to take place within 3 weeks), a buyer or potential buyer would have no way of knowing exactly how much behind (PI and fees) a delinquent trustor really is/was on their principle and interest payments. Further research would have to be conducted as to the status of unpaid taxes, HOA dues and insurance premiums. You, as a “shadow inventory researcher” from the public are not entitled to receive information as to the status of HOA dues and insurance premiums.
I would think the most efficient way to track it today is to follow the trustee’s sale notices, NOD’s that become SS listings or SS listings that become NOD’s. However, that is only a fraction of the true “shadow inventory.”
The $64M questions are “how MUCH behind in PI” and “how MUCH will defaulted-upon lender(s) settle for” (in relation to the property’s actual mkt value). The answers to these questions are unknown by everyone, including listing agents, until a NOS is filed or a SS is finally “approved.”
