It seems to me that it will always be hard to have a perfect indication of how many foreclosures are out there and I’d probably rather focus on any deals that could be had.
After you figure out the foreclosure data then your next even harder situation is to get a handle on how many mortgages are outstanding and how risky they are in terms of interest rate resets, current and original LTV.
It would seem like there will be more foreclosures in the next year regardless of how you count them.