I’ve been on this site for over a year now…and I think our friend here has it partly right.
I think most of us here frequent this sight b/c many of us feel the market is going to drop…for me…it was a place to gather information and educate myself on the market. Not being in the RE business – I have found the wealth of information on this site to be invaluable. I also do agree that there is a sentiment among the “core” peole here that the market is going to TANK hard. Obviously, that opinion is not shared by the entire population – or ntohign would be selling. Less is selling, but stuff still sells.
I have also been doing a lot of going out to “look” like Alex Angel suggests we do – and I have to admit – when I go to new housing developments and walk around the models – there are a lot of people looking. the little “map” things in the slaes offices that have the “sold” and “available” pins on them – show lots of sales. I have been to some developments over and over to look repeatedly, and I see homes taht were available, be removed from the list. I’ve called and pretended to be ready to come in and put a deposit on the house that was listed and they tell me it’s in escrow..and these were homes that were listing for almsot $500k in temecula an dmurrieta…so stuff is selling.
it’s just not selling at the volume it was.
now i wonder if the NEW homes are selling better than the resales b/c the builders can undercut the resales. I have seen a LOT of that. you go to a new development that is on say phase 10 of 10. and some poor guy who bought in phase 2 or 3 has his house for sale. he bought it stripped for $550-600k. he has linoleum, no backyard landscaping, plain white ceramic tile on his kitchen, plain white cheapy appliances, cheapy everything. it’s stripped.
the builder now has standing inventory, they have a hard time selling b/c it’s slow, so they reduce the price to $500-550 and they load the house up. extensive hard wood flooring, tiling, landscaping, s/s appliances, granite, jacuzzi tub, window coverings..etc.
you can buy a loaded house for $500 or the stripped one for $600 that has been lived in.. hmmm.. so the builder still keeps selilng but at less of a profit and the poor homeowner who’s ARM is resetting, has no equity, and can’t sell walks away and his house goes into foreclosure or maybe he can arrange a short sale…
bottom line is the housing prices ARE coming down. I”ve seen it. I rent ah ouse that sold for $450k. some of the later phases and resales within the same development sold for close to $500k. the owner is willing to sell it to me for $350k. i see another one down the street advertised as a short sale for $400k. prices are LESS than they were a year ago. period. at least up here in tem/murrieta they are.
will they keep going down and HOW LOW will they go is the magical question taht no one truly knows the answer to.
many here wish and believe that it will go down much much lower. some think it will go lower but not that much…
i’m NOT an expert…but from what i’ve educated myself on..i think prices will still go lower. but i don’t think they will bomb down to actual 2000 or 2002 dollar values. they may get to those levels but adjusted for inflation..
so that house that cost $250k in 2002 will sell for 300-325 in a year or two…… but to think that a house that is now listing for $500k will suddently be wroth $200k is fantasy land.. at least to me.
as long as the interest rates stay low the prices won’t drop off the map. i’d like them to, but i dont think they will. maybe i’m wrong… and the people here who say 50% drops will be right.
only time will tell. but i do think when you have website like this where everyone thinks alike, and you mostly agree about somethig, you tend to get more reinforcement of your own opinions. put a bunch of conservative republicans together in one room, have them discuss politics and they all agree, and reinforce one another. put liberal dems in another room and same thing happens.
here we have a person from the opposite camp dropping in on our “room”…we ought to listen, be polite, educate, and exchange info. not bash. we may end up being right and the market wil explode over the next few year…and maybe it will sort of slowly deflate and while we see true drops when you factor in the drops and inflation..but we might enver see a “crash”…no one knows until it happens.
