I wasn’t quoting you; I was merely parrotting what I have been hearing over and over from the permabulls for the past few years regarding home prices.
When I mean hard and fast I mean hard and fast like a roller coaster:
just moving right along at a slow pace ’til you reach the top and then…..you hit the top….then there is that giant pause…..and whhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!
While I appreciate your numbers and the facts you bring, it is foolish to think that somehow N. Coast County will be insulated from a crash when the rest of the county goes down. Only 9 detached homes have been sold since Halloween? Hmmm…that doesn’t sound like a whole lot to me. Additionally, that means there are 521 homes (same ones I imagine) for sale. That is 1.8 homes sold/month (I estimated at 5 months). Therefore, it will take…break out the abacus….289 months to sell current inventory. That is of course no more detached homes go on the market which will only exacerbate the situation.
While I can imagine the more desirable places (N. County Coast) resisting a downward trend in prices, it is inevitable that even these desirable places will be brought down by the rest of the county. A lot. With lending rules tightening, rates going up, Americans (San Diegans as well) living with greater debt and the savings rate at the lowest point in history, who is going to buy these remaining 529 homes?
Here is the one thing that just puzzles me to no end:
if the real estate market took off so quickly in such a short period of time, why can’t it come down just as quickly?
answer from the permabulls: because it’s different this time!
