It’s been my experience that when you rent from the big box type complexes they will raise your rent no matter what when the lease is up and there is little to no negotiation involved.
I just spent the past month finding a new apartment so I can tell you I’ve seen rents across the board down several hundred dollars in the areas I was looking. However, just because they were willing to give me a 2 bedroom for 1400 that someone is currently paying 1550 for, doesn’t mean that they won’t raise the guys rent paying 1550 to 1600 when his lease is up. They know people would rather stay and pay more than have to go through the hassle of moving.
You can definitely negotiate when you are renting from one person as opposed to one of these rental machines. You can use leverage that you’ve been a model tenant and show how rents are decreasing in the area. You can threaten to walk and you can bet they’ll try to keep you. They don’t want a vacancy for a month. The big box rental machines won’t blink when you tell them you’re walking, they’ll just show you the door.