[quote=FormerSanDiegan]What I find interesting about this proposal is that on the surface they expect to get additional revenue, based on people’s mortgages today. However, if this tax law changed, don’t you think those affected would make changes ?
For example, one could choose to rent a similar property, and hold their existing house as a rental. A rental property is taxed as a business and the mortgage interest is a business expense. Getting rid of business expenses will be a much harder sell than limiting primary residence mortgage interest deduction.
If this change is made, people will adapt and there will be other unintended consequences. For example, higher end property values could decline significantly, resulting in lower property taxes and less money in Local/state Government coffers. SO, it’s likely that the long-term net result would be equivalent to the Federal Government taking funds from state/local governments.
It’s even possible that the net effect after taking into account people’s obvious response to lower their tax burden would be fewer dollars net going into government hands.[/quote]
I kind of disagree on your conclusion about higher end property values suffering. They may fall a little, but they will find an equilibrium without anything like the drop of the last few years.
Additionally, I suspect if the change ever does get passed, it will include a phaseout of the interest deduction, not an elimination. Previous discussions described the phaseout only affecting taxpayers in higher tax brackets. We’ve had a few of those discussions on this board. It probably would not include a corresponding drop in overall rates and would be a net revenue increase.
There is another option which I personally prefer. And that would be a phase-out of the home mortgage interest deduction entirely, similar to the elimination of the credit card interest deduction 20 some years ago. That was phased out over 4 years if I recall correctly. 1st year, only 75% of credit card interest was deductible, next year 50%, 3rd year 25%, 4th year zero.
Because home mortgage interest deductions tend to be pretty significant, the phase-out would probably have to more like 8 to 10 years, and could be made net revenue-neutral by lowering tax rates accordingly. Those with average mortgage interest would not be dramatically affected. Those with minimal mortgage interest would have a tax savings, those with very large mortgage interest would have a tax increase.
While even 10 years is much shorter than most people have a mortgage, it is a long enough period for taxpayers to plan for an earlier payoff.
It would serve a number of purposes.
1. Help to stabalize home prices. Prices would no longer suffer the volatility they currently do based on interest rates. Rates would still be a factor, but not near as significant as they are currently.
2. Reduce private debt. Homeowners would have a tax incentive to pay off their mortgages.
3. Discourage the HELOC ATM syndrome. Encourage and reward financial responsibility.
4. Put renters and homeowners on an even playing field tax wise. There will still be the exact same non-tax reasons to buy a home, stability, permanence, control.
I’m sure there are plenty of other good reasons for it. Other than it being a significant change, I can think of no reasons it’s a bad idea for the economy as a whole.
