gzz, I don’t believe we’ll see a sub 1% long term rate. I agree with Rich on this point.
I should clarify that I am talking about 10-year Treasury rates, and I think it may be a good 5-10 years before they move south of 1% for more than a few days at a time.
However, in July 2016 the US ten-year dipped down to 1.37%. So .38% below the rate a few months ago isn’t that bold a prediction.
I also think gov bonds are a bit overvalued compared to corporate and munis. So it is possible gov rates and gov-influenced mortgage rates go flat while other important rates fall. Indeed, I own plenty of bonds but no US gov debt.
