“I’m too lazy to look at 1990s data, but I think that the high-end will drop even more than the low-middle range.”
That did happen during the 1990s and I expect it to happen again. I refer to it as price compression where the price structure not only declines as a whole but the range contracts with the middle and upper ranges showing more loss by both price and percentage than the lower end.
Realistically, how many $900k+ tract homes does this region need?