I’m replying to kick this very helpful (but old) thread, onto the piggington.com Active Forum Topics. I see a lot of great info on bear mutual funds and bear ETF’s in this thread, which have certainly revealed their value since mid-July, after which the markets fell ~10% to the Aug 15th low. My portfolio was 100% short the market on that ride down.
On Aug 15th, I figured the -340 point intraday put the DOW into a (temporarily) oversold position. I closed all my shorts that day, going to cash.
We have seen about a 5% up tick since then. I got lucky again.
Now my instincts are that it is again time to put chips back onto the table in short positions. However, I’m only going to put 25% of my portfolio back into short positions, because a nagging feeling says this market may have a wee bit more up tick before the chronic bear market resumes.
I’m going to throw that 25% at the PROSHARES TR ULTRASHT SP500 (Ticker: SDS), trying that ETF for the first time, based on some of your good advice. Here is why I’m not going back into the RYTPX (Rydex 2X Inverse Fund) I previously held:
I couldn’t sell RYTPX intraday on Aug 15th and take advantage of the minus 340 point intraday swing. RYTPX is a mutual fund so it sold at the end-of-day price. That cost me many thousands of dollars.
I believe ETF’s can be sold intraday, correct?
Anyway, so now you know my new bets on the market: I’m 75% cash, and I’m putting 25% into 2X inverse ETF tomorrow. If the next few business days show this up tick has run out of steam, I’m putting lots more chips onto the table in short positions again, but in positions less risky than a 2X inverse fund.
A recession is coming and this market is headed down another 10% to 20%. I’m certain of it.
