I’m on record as saying I think it’s all connected, but the connections between these various areas are indirect, not direct. An average includes the highs and the lows. Just be the sheer volume of buyers and sellers, the lower priced markets dwarf the highest priced markets. Enough so that I don’t think whatever happens in RSF and Fairbanks has any effect on the Countywide medians. There just aren’t enough of those sales to make a difference.
In the RSF zip area of 92067 there were only 116 sales of SFRs and condos in the MLS for all of 2007. Even though 2007 was a really bad year for sales in the County the 116 sales is literally just a drop in the bucket of the 25,000 sales that during the year.
If an RSF home drops by 30% I would consider that to be a massive adjustment for its market segment. I’d be pretty shocked if RSF dropped by 40%. Never say never, but I think it’s unlikely.