I’m not sure what you’re asking. I don’t mind when my threads get hijacked. Some of my threads don’t get any responses at all, because I tend to ask questions that no one can answer, so at least this one generated a discussion.
I’m attending the UCLA Anderson Forecast seminar downtown tomorrow, and I’ll ask them, if I get a chance, how long they think it will take to hit bottom, and how they arrived at their conclusion. Is that what you wanted to know?
I was repetitive also in my question, since we’ve discussed this before. It seems most people think it will take 7 years. Check out the Bubble Primer: it took as long to go down as it took to go up in the other 2 downturns.
I just spoke with a friend, and we expressed our impatience with how long it takes for this bubble to unwind. Our impatience doesn’t help. These things jut take time to unfold. Next year, more ARMs will reset, but there are other people who won’t be forced into foreclosure for many years, like the buyers of my home who got a 5/1 ARM in 2006. It will be 2011 before they find out if they can afford the higher payments. So we’ll see continued struggles among homeowners until at least 2011, and as long as people are facing foreclosure, there’ll be downard pressure on prices. Sure, we can go out and buy a home now, but the person whose ARM adjusts in 2011 and has to sell quickly, will bring whatever prices exist at that time, even lower. If you want to wait for the very bottom, to minimize your entry cost, you’ve got to wait 7 years at least. That’s my opinion,and that’s what we’re prepared to do.