I’m in the middle bear camp. We have to look at all the factors
1) jobs
2) loans
3) interest rates
4) inflation, etc
One factor that is being ignored is the Walmart vs Nordstrom dichotomy. JWN stock is up 300% in 5 years, while the WMT is down 10% in 5 years!!! The beach crowd has gotten richer while the blue collar crowd as gotten a major ass whoppin from inflation [For the no-inflation crowd (the guys at the Fed, for one), I’ll send a note to my friend Alberto who will give a fancy water-boarding treatment at your favorite spa.]
So what does the story of the beautiful people tell us? They are less likely to be in financial dire straits. Thus, homes in fancier areas will experience 15-20% decline, while the “starter” areas will be hot 30-40%.
