I’m a housing bear. My husband has a Masters in Real Estate Development. We have been doing a lot of research the last year and half. We sold our house in March of 2005 and locked in our profit (it is all air until it is in the bank). We moved into a rental in Coronado that is on the water. Our rent would only be enough to pay the property taxes and assoc. fees on this house if it was sold at the present value!
While we do not like renting, we feel confident that it will pay big dividends. I will be shocked if the San Diego market does not fall significantly.
Those people who have any form of adjustable mortgage right now are taking a big risk. Those mortgages are great in an upward moving market but are a bad bet in today’s uncertainty.
My prediction:
– Housing prices will really start to fall by Thanksgiving.
– Realtors and contruction people will start losing their jobs or quit making money. Unemployment starts to rise.
– The entire country could be looking at a recession starting about Thanksgiving (a whole separate issue but I think it is coming – this also shoots to pieces the “but jobs are great” argument).
– Housing prices drop further and continue downward for some time.
