If you were to go back to the recession in the early 90’s or 2002 you would still see packed parking lots and full restaurants. This is still S. California, there are alot of people here. This is strictly anecdotal.
I am in a sales management capacity with a commodity type product going into a variety of channels i.e industrial, service economy, energy/utilities and municipalities. Here is what I am seeing in regards to how these business are spending money, the numbers in the industrial, service and municipalities are soft. The service related businesses are getting hammered, that number is down 25%, I speak to my competitors on friendly basis and they confirm they are seeing the same thing. We are seeing layoffs in the industrial sector and that is a game of taking your competitors market share, my area has strong market share growth due to some aggressive initiatives and that number is about flat with last years numbers. The municipalities are ALL cutting back on expenditures, we are down 15% vs last year. The bright spot is energy and utilities, that segment is our saving grace we are up over 25% over last years shipments. All indications is that will continue through the balance of the year. There is a massive capital spend right now upgrading equipment at the refineries and related businesses.
With the exception of energy/utilites every single customer I talk to is hurting, commissions are down for sales people and the mood is sour. The first two weeks of shipments for May have been the weakest this year, hopefully that will rebound somewhat. This looks and feels like a recession to me, not a particularly bad one just yet but the last two weeks of shipments has me a little concerned.
