If you really think long and hard about this situation it doesn’t make sense for the initially blamed parties to intentionally shoot down a civilian aircraft. What do the rebels gain by shooting down a civilian aircraft? What does Russia gain from intentionally shooting down a civilian aircraft? Both are assumed to have done it but for what reason? Certainly I don’t see why Russia or the Rebels would do something like that, because if proven to be true it means the west gets drawn into a battle that the rebels seem to be winning. Now Ukraine on the other hand might have a good reason. What better way to shift the tide of war but to shoot down an aircraft and successfully lay blame on the enemies you seem to be losing too.
This feels a lot like the Syrian chemical weapon attack. Let’s make it look like our enemies did something that crossed the line so we can draw our allies in to assist us to fight a war they aren’t really interested in.
Could Russia or the rebels have done this by mistake. That’s certainly a valid possibility. This plane may have flown on the normal flight path and was deemed some kind of threat that it wasn’t.
It’s messy none the less and the next round of sanctions will probably led to Russia cutting off the gas supplies to Europe.