If you look at the last few RE cycles in CA, you’ll see that by far the strongest correlation is in unemployment. Anything above 6% spells a shut down for the RE market. We’re at 7.7% in CA and rising with no bottom in sight yet.
The failout package is about containing a collapse. not stopping the trend. It’s a delaying tactic at best and who knows how long or well it will really work. SD county has had a median price of about 5 times median income as a historic std for the last 30 years. That could easily over correct in a housing bear market and go more towards the national ratio of 3:1.
