If you have a locked loan rate for 30 years at or below 6%, then you numbers are very close. The HOA rate may be a deal breaker, but if it is under $300, the numbers get close.
Currently, you have $1200 out of pocket to live.
If you buy at $200K, you have ~$1200/mortgage, $200/mnth property taxes and $300/mnth HOA for ~$1700 out of pocket. You get a little kick back on taxes, but lose your standard deduction, which you’re probably close on with State tax anyway.
At the current rental rate, after taxes, it’ll still cost you about $200 more per month to own if you buy at $200,000.
UTC has a large number of condo conversion on the market, similar to downtown, the big question is ‘are the rents going to hold’. Currently they’re running up, but there are significant numbers of units on the side lines.
If the units that are offline come back, I suspect we will see more of what we saw in ’93-’96 range where “rent” is $1200/month, however you get last month free with 12 month lease and/or half of the move in month etc. That way, the complex can maintain the higher price on renewal, still report $1200 as average rent even when your effective rent is only $1000. The drawback as a renter, you have to negotiate or move to get those rates. Often, larger complexes will churn you instead of refreshing an incentive.
If you could pick the condo up for $170/180K you may be good. If the HOA is closer to $200 and not $300, then $180/190K works if you’ll live their long enough and rents hold.
