“If this market (Carmel Valley) weakens it might a bad sign for weaker markets. If it doesnt weaken that isnt necessarily a sign that other markets wont but it would certainly provoke further questions and analysis.”
sdreator, I think you got it backward.
In a downturn, there is always a “flight for quality”. This is why Carmel Valley (solidly upper middle class) holds up so well.
It’s always the “weaker” markets that go down first. And since all markets are “connected”, eventually, the “stronger” markets will go down also.
So, when Escondido & Chula Vista weaken, it’s a bad sign for Carmel Valley. NOT the other way around. CV is NOT a bellweather.
