If I had used months inventory as a metric, I think I would have thought of selling between summer 04 and summer 05. My only problem was that my house was under construction and not complete until 9/05, so I really couldn’t sell before. Additionally, I did not have the knowledge I have now. Back then, I didn’t even know we were in a housing bubble. I thought prices would stay this high. I didn’t know the majority of buyers were getting interest only and neg-AM loans. I was clueless. But I did know enough to not buy any homes during the runup. It seemed too crazy to buy.
I would be happy to buy within 5% of the bottom. I don’t think I’ll get stuck on any dead cat bounces if I use a knowledgeable realtor plus data. The realtors will be the first to know when activity picks up, long before the data shows it.
I think everyone here will know when the bottom is also. We are all using the same data, and we have very good realtors here who will inform us when activity starts picking up.
There are other factors to watch too: reduced HAI (a NAR quotient combining income, price, and interest rates, where 100% means the median income can afford the median home price and CA was a dismal 14% last December), rising employment, population inflow. So I’m waiting for a turnaround in the economy, before the media gets the word out.