I would not be looking to buy immediately in San Diego. It is typically better to move, rent a while, and do your homeowrk with your feet on the ground here first. There are a lot of subtleties to real estate that are hard to glean from web searches and first impressions.
Now, about that house in Washington… I cannot speak to any opinion as to whether houses are due for a 10% or more decline there. But I’d like to offer a counter-opinion that we rarely get on this board.
As a landlord, who was in a similar position to you 6 years ago, I would look at it this way: Accounting for maintenance, vacancies, and management, your negative will likely average roughly 500 per month over the next 5-6 years (probably more like 600-700 per month initially, then decreasing with rent increases). After 5 or 6 years rents are likely to increase to the point where you break even. You will likely break even after taxes much sooner (maybe even in year 1) because of the depreciation write-off.
So, fast forward about 6 years … AT that point you will have a property that is likely to be breaking even or slightly positive cash flow. Your tenants will be paying it off over the next 20-25 years. All that for the equivalent of a monthly payment on a new car for the next 6 years.
Of course, I am assuming that rents increase at 3-4% per year and that we are not entering the next great depression.
The real question is whether or not you are suited to be a property owner or whether you might be better off selling and investing the 600 bucks a month in something else.
Others might opt to avoid the whole landlord thing or investment alternatives and just enjoy a new 5-series every few years.
