“I think we have to wait until spring/summer and see what’s going on then.”
I agree totally. the housing market generally goes into hibernation in the winter so it is difficult to determine a true direction. This also allows the perma bulls to get on their blow horns and tell everybody the bottom is in, the downturn is over, blah, blah blah. Homebuilders took a big hit in the past couple of days and I think that sector will be volatile throughout the year (I will not short those stocks, too crazy for me). I remember this time last year focusing on the ballooning inventories and the first true downturn in YOY sales. That was stage 1. This year I am focusing on the NOD’s and foreclosures, and actual prices. This will be stage 2. The real carnage will occur with the inevitable downturn in the economy. That could come into full force late 2007. 2008 will be the ugliest year. Nothing has changed in my mind since I noticed this bubble in 2004. This is playing out like clockwork.
