I think we are headed for a recession without a doubt. When or the degree of it is uncertain but when an economy is heavily dependent on a certain cyclical sector it is very vulnerable. Once that sector pulls back, there either needs to be something else to step in and support the economy (none to my knowledge at this point) or the economy pulls back. The degree of the pull back is debatable. Recessions can be good for the economy in the long run. This one will be dubbed something like the “land rush /credit hangover”.
