I think the issue of housing continuing to reap double-digit gains is answered. No one expects a continuation of rapid price increases with inventories at six and a half months and interest rates moving up so quickly. But I don’t think the down turn will be as quick as the author of “The Coming Housing Crash” predicts.
He captures all of the standard economic arguments, plus the following:
“many people who had been holding homes in anticipation of price rises will rush to sell, now that the market is headed downward.”
Although this is a logical step, I don’t think it will happen with any great frequency. Having just gone through (4 months ago) selling in front of the price peak, I can say that moving will be avoided by any and all who can.
Moving is expensive and traumatic and a lot of hard work. Catching the peak netted me $500k, but I would be reluctant to go through that now that the peak has passed if I did not have to. Increases in variable rates will force many to the sales office, but the rest who can will keep chasing the price down trying to avoid the “move”.