I think that this election is Obama’s to lose. And I think Obama has enough vulnerabilities where that is a distinct possibility. I don’t think you can look at this election through the lens of 2000 or 2004. The composite of the electorate is the wild card in this election. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the polls this year due to pollsters probably not weighting the demographics correctly. Right now I would say that plays to Obama’s favor. You could take Virginia as an example. This has been a reliable Republican state for decades but maybe not this year. You have a large African American population and the growing suburbs of N. Va which lean left. This is where all the energy and activism lies. Turnout among these voters will more than likely be historic, enough to flip Va blue. But there is enough controversy in Obama’s past that could really galvanize the middle part of the electorate to vote on culture and national security issues which would benefit McCain. Right now given the state of the economy (housing bust, ongoing credit crisis, oil) and the fact that recently McCain has come cross as a creepy Mr. McGoo I would guess that Obama will win. My gut tells me he won’t close the deal. JMHO.
