“I think it will take 1-2 quarters more to slow down the consumer”
I think it could be several quarters away.
You speak of catalysts and massive layoffs as if you expect a true burst. As if the burst is an event, not a process. I see it as a small, unstoppable leak. There’ll be some layoffs this year. Some layoffs next year. Some more to follow after that, etc.
The catalysts are in place and slowly taking effect one-by-one. Not all at once.
Remember the boiling frog?
Sentiment is so hard to turn and that will delay the badness. People are talking about the real estate market recovering next year as if the bubble has burst. Meanwhile, the water gets warmer and warmer and warmer. It’s unbelievable.
