I slightly disagree. Recent events would suggest the opposite. The tech bubble of 2001, the housing bust, the banking crises, etc. lead me to believe that, call them what you will, perfect storms obviously happen. And recently with alarming frequency.
I agree that by timing a future perfect storm in the 2010-12 time frame makes the (rather ridiculous) assumption that there will be no changes to current policy. But it is the coming changes to these policies that will help to determine the timing, size, and scope of our next crisis.
To correct an inaccuracy in my hypothetical scenario: It is the date that the debt is forgiven that is key to tax implications, rather than the date of foreclosure.
