I see it taking 6+ years to get a four-year degree at CA public universities in the near future, with CSU taking longer than UC to finish. This will get ridiculously expensive as CSU is ALREADY $1731 for <6 credit hours (which may be all an undergraduate student can actually obtain in ONE semester when they begin working on their major). This doesn’t include parking, health/student center fees or books/materials.
I am also concerned about the ongoing massive defense drawdown which is and will cut loose thousands of military “careerists” who have 10-20 years service. They will get educational benefits in lieu of retiring with 20 years of service and may even be offered a partial pension. I believe these affected 27-37 yo soldiers and sailors who remain are CA after discharge from the service are going to get first priority in CA university admissions over and above our current HS kids who are trying mightily to get accepted. They will be considered a “resident student” for fee purposes regardless of their home state of residency. This will force most CA HS grads into CC for their two years of college, IMO.
If my kid ends up locked out of CSU/UC, I will find a way for them to “establish residency” in another state where public university admissions are not so limited/impacted, even if they are an entering junior (CA CC grad) at the time and still cannot get in. If we have to wait out a year and work in the new locale to establish residency, so be it. This will take LESS time and be LESS expensive than playing this game with trying to get the classes to graduate at CSU/UC.