I remember PS analysis of his symposium a year or so ago. Even then that was his prediction. No massive retrenchment, just a slow lowering of prices over the next couple of years. Yes he left himself several defensive caveats, like if the economy tanks all bets are off.
I enjoyed the videos very much but do tend to agree that his predictions are far to conservative in light of what is happening in credit markets. Let alone a coming general recession in our economy.
