I (probably) wouldn’t have come out in the low $800s, but I see no indication in that neighborhood that prices are INCREASING relative to earlier in this year.
You may not care for the sales in those two neighborhoods but that’s what is there. Just to remind you, neither the 02/2007 nor the 03/2007 sales in this neighborhood are dated from the perspectives of even the most paranoid of lenders. That’s 2 closed sales in addition to the 6.5 month old sale in that immediate neighborhood. Even if I used a more recent sale from the nearest “similar” neighborhood to the north as my 3rd sale without adjusting for its demonstrated superiority in the market I’d still be compelled to give more weight to the more proximate sales. Not only are they more similar in location, they were built by the same developer and subcontractors, they have more similar design and floorplans, and they would have sold with similar options.
If anything, the 6.5 month old sale is the one that supports the highest value indicator – as an agent you should be encouraging its use, not discouraging it.
Remind me one more time about the 3 most important factors in real estate? (Location, Location, Location)
If we’re talking about a subdivision home, it would take an act of God to justify going outside the neighborhood in order to exclude inside sales that bracket our property’s characteristics. I would have to be able to positively demonstrate that prices are INCREASING relative to the dates of sale of those earlier sales, enough so to completely discount them as being indicative of the current value. In other words, I’d be saying the market is so hot that a 4-month old sale is too dated to use at all.
I know you’re bullish on this neighborhood but can you prove SIGNIFICANT price increases in the last 6 months? Let’s compare the subject’s own prior sale in 2005 with the early 2007 sales; does that indicate increases to you? I’m just not seeing it.
Maybe things will look better next month after a couple more pendings close; but I doubt it.
