I never said it would be 125X. I said it would be 125X+20%. That means that your MM house will be 250ish…. CV houses about 720k. From what I can see in Jan 2008 Median in CV for houses was 860k. A 16% drop over the next two years to 720k doesnt seem to much does it? In North county, MM will be the bottom along with Oceanside and Esco. Areas such as 92113 will be lower, as per history.
Please remember when I say this, the MEDIAN in march of 2001 in Carmel Valley was 605k for houses, Condos were less. 19% appreciation in 10 years (2001-2010) would still be ~2% per year, coming out of a recession. I dont think housing could claim that kind of appreciation coming out of the 1992 recession. That is alot more inline with standard housing appreciation, and doesnt include the “its different this time” excuses. We have been conditioned for so long about the value of housing that when we look back and really look at the numbers it starts to hurt how outa wack it all is.
From what I can tell, 125x+20% equals early 2001 priceing before the bubble. Now you can argue inflation says that prices need to be higher. Good argument cept that is reported inflation. Reported inflation hurts housing prices as people have to devote more money to gas, food, and other necessities. WAGE inflation lifts houses, and for the biggest segments of middle america, that has been stagnant since 2001. Apperently piggs dont fit in this catagory and are all in the highest earners, who have seen the lions share of wage increase in the past few years. But reported inflation sure hasnt been tame, especially in the past year. It is getting worse too, not better. J6pk isnt gonna like $4 gas very much.
I just dont see how with no wage inflation, a recession hitting, and inflation higher than it has been since the 80’s, we are gonna get only a few more percent drop and be done with it. Especially when J6pk hasnt saved a dime in years. The nicer areas will do better, mostly cause it’s J6pk’s boss who you are competing against. James Zinfindell (the boss) has done well, but isnt dumb enough to throw it all away on a house. We might get a few dead cat bounces as different price points are reached, that is normal, but this market has legs, and they are running all down hill. They will continue to head down hill till inventory starts to fall, and wage inflation comes back. I dont see that happening till the far side of this recession. I still think 2011 is the year to look, assuming you can wait that long. Glad I can.
