I must not get it, but I dont understand why that article was so bad. So the recession is ending, when you define recession as simply a decreasing GDP, and recovery as a not decreasing GPD. Techincally, considering the unpressidented amounts of money spent/printed in the past 12 months, it shouldnt be suprising that GDP is rising. Cash 4 clunkers made alot of people go out and buy a car, raising GDP. 3.5% FHA loans induce people to buy houses, especially when that 3.5% came from a tax rebate for buying that house. Billions were lost saving the automakers, and AIG, and a few banks (though that will be interesting to see in the end how much we lose). And those billions are circling the economy, slowly, making people buy/spend.
That is all the article was about. The Federal reserve is reporting that GDP is no longer declining, the techinical definition of an end of a recession.
Now I (and alot of other people) think this is the upward slope of a W recession, as consumer spending is still down, consumer credit is still contracting and at a higher rate (ie no consumption rebound) and techinical factors like inventory stocking for the Xmas season end in January. Especially when this Xmas season is gonna suck for alot of retailers.
With all the cash the government has flooded the economy with, it shouldnt be a suprise we see a ‘calming of the waters’ for a while. Shouldnt the media report that? Even if anyone who is paying attention with more than a kindergarden education knows that the level of intervention it took to get this isnt sustainable.
