I have a very intimate knowlege of Santaluz having owned/sold over 10 lots/homes out there during its early stages.
Early on people were very scared of the place because “where are the trees?” they would say.
Now that custom homes have been built on about 50% of the dirt (to varying degrees of refinement) and the higher end price point of $4mm has proven attainable the fear factor has subsided somewhat.
70 Degrees’ comments were very accurate. I believe that upon buildout in 15 years it will be looked at as an amazing community and folks will wonder why they didn’t buy in when it was cheaper.
For now, the flood of custom homes preparing to come tumbling down in price due to foreclosure is set to begin. Several are in foreclsure and the market is jammed with homes between $2.4- $3.4mm. Once this breaks it will be a race to sub $300/sf for a good quality custom home on an above average lot (6,000sf for $1.8mm or less).
My take is that it will get to the point that you can buy that home for its hard construction costs ($250-$300/sf) and get the lot,permits,effort, etc for free.
If you can handle the MR/HOA, have young kids, or like the active family environment, and plan to stay for the long term, I personally feel you cannot go wrong. Flipping, however, may prove hazerdous to your retirement.
