I have a couple analyses on this forum – many months ago.
That line moves between %16% and 25% depending on my mood and the analysis I do. I’m at about 22% now.
Also, I make it very clear that my prediction is for actual peak-to-trough median price reductions in SFRs. Many who post predictions will say “50%” OK. 50% what? 50% real? 50% actual? The biggest drop in any zip code is 50%? The average? Condos? SFR? What? Be clear.
In 5 years, some will go find 3 houses that dropped by the exact amount they predicted and say “see, I told you” when in fact those examples don’t behave anywhere near the median price.
Also, some will predict a 50% drop in actual prices and mean real prices (or vice-versa), forgetting to adjust for inflation, which is significant when discussing a 7 year outlook in an environment where you hear the word “hyperinflation” on occasion.
So, when I draw a line in the sand, you know where that line is and you know when it has been crossed or not.
I don’t mind “gut feel”, “SWAGS” (Stupid, wild-ass guesses), and the newly founded “RSI”, as long as they are presented as such.
What I don’t like is to see numbers and analysis tuned to meet SWAGS that were formulated before the analysis began.
