I had three houses I sold in early 2007 because I had been to a seminar in late 2005 where the guy made an excellent case for the market crashing. I checked his data and it was happening just the way he said it would. So I got out as I could see the market stalling, big time. But his analysis was that in a good case scenario the RE market in CA would correct about 35% in the aggregate. It would take about 4 years total. He did say in a worst case scenario we’d have financial melt-down and market chaos. I figured the worse case scenario was real tin-foil-hat stuff as I’d heard it all before and it never really happend. Well, guess what, it looks shockingly real this time. And some very sharp guys are calling it now.
I still remember thinking that $1000 for the seminar seemed expensive, but I thought he was a smart guy and worth listening to. BEST $1000 I EVER SPENT!! And I learned from him and a few other sharp guys that spending a few hundred on a seminar or newsletter is by far the absolutely cheapest way you’ll ever learn anything in this world. Bubblevision is udder Bull nonsense and actually misleading.
I still hope these guys are not correct, but it sure looks like it. Hard core deflation is no one’s friend. It’ll really suck for us all if it keeps gaining momentum.
