I expect the “HS” period to last from Sept through Jan.
This is the soft part of the year in the second half of the decline, now nearly 3 years old.
If the decline lasts for 5 years – from Sept 2005 through 2010, then we are past the midpoint but still in the steep part of the drop AND heading out of Spring.
Next year at this time, we will also be entering the softer part of the year, but the slope of the decline will likely have started to taper off, county-wide.
Yes – splitting into different markets is key. Part of the “HS” period is that CV realizes there is no escape. Fall 2009 may be be worse for CV, but county-wide, this Fall is when it really sinks in.
