I don’t think the real avg rate of increase is 9%/year.
Maybe not! This was a back-of-a-cigarette-packet calculation. I wasn’t really suggesting starting from 2000 to give a meaningful figure. It’s just that the only data I could find was in ten year increments from 1940 and ended in 2000. It doesn’t really matter where you start if you include any of the huge surge in recent prices, because I don’t see how that will give you an idea of where prices “should” be. It’s all hypothetical anyway.