I don’t think he is lying, but I do think the phrase “won’t go down” has to be qualified. Even if someone had bought in the 1989 peak, he wouldn’t have lost “real” (accounting for inflation) money if he sold it in 2002 or 2003. But can everyone afford to wait? The answer is no. Any asset price *has* to go up and down, over the short term. Otherwise the price increase would be arbitraged away. That would then be a contradiction of the premise that the price will always increase. Yes you should be able to do the arbitrage for real-estate too, if price increases were a given.
I don’t see why residents in Poway are immune to divorce, lay-offs, etc., which would drive prices down in other areas during “bust” times.
