I don’t think anything meaningful will change on the H1-b front.
flu is wrong on the IT grudge work. The grudge work is starting to come back on shore. It’s all the mid-level/high level IT stuff now that is mostly getting impacted because of the pay differential.
IMO, the H1-b and more importantly, the outsourcing stances are really just management exercises in addressing core structural problems they’ve been lax in addressing for a long time. It’s the path of least resistance. They can address the cost impact of the speed/cost/quality triangle without having to address the underlying demands affecting the utilization.
It doesn’t fix the problem but does for executive management fix the cost/headcount issues that are often spiraling out of control. IT often has been treated as a public good in corporations and all the demand problems that go along with that. Essentially, the corp execs privatize it.
The one thing flu is right on this front is that you should intervene if your graduate is about to take an IT position. It would be like taking a manufacturing job in 1980s, IMHO. Sure there will be jobs around, but displacement, chaos will be the norm.
