I don’t see Obama doing anything different to what he said he was gong to do, which incidentally included cross border raids into Pakistan, or Waziristan. A change of policy is not the same as a U-turn, which can be suicidal. I also don’t see the connection between left wing politics and non-militarism. The assertion above that the macro view of situations like this are vulnerable to political persuasion rings true, but equally, the micro view is often an isolated account. There is no substitute for being on the ground, for first hand accounts, but it has to be the sum total of those accounts that make a difference. Our press does a fair job of striking that balance of impartiality, but we never really learn what is truly going on. So it is much better to prefix all assertions with a conditional get out clause, viz; “Can we assume that…?'” rather than making bold statements based on western media accounts.
We are lead to believe that Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan is porous, and occupied by Taliban and Al-Qaeda forces. The Sunday New York Times front cover depicted a public beating of a man accused of a crime. Interestingly, it was mostly young boys who were sitting around watching this. But how typical this is, we don’t know. Pakistan’s instability as a result of the rise in terrorism makes it’s nuclear capabilities a greater cause for concern. But I think it would take a major shift in the power structure before that threat became real, by which time preventative steps would hopefully have been taken by the current Pakistan regime and it’s allies. Fractious relations with India are probably as big a concern, if not bigger, and I hope that this tension is not successfully exploited by Al-Qaeda.
Taking the fight back to Afghanistan looks like a more justifiable battle, since it is the origin of where it started. I wonder to what extent the Pakistan government has given the US implicit permission to conduct cross border raids. Since this is a dangerous and inhospitable mountainous area making media coverage difficult, and where civilian populations are tribal and probably lead quite a primitive existence, it looks like a more discreet war can be waged. That has to be more politically prudent for a new president.
