I don’t have access to the long term MLS listing data and I doubt that even the boards that comprise the MLS here in SD County have it.
“Timing” the market before it does its thing is not possible, in my opinion. There are too many variables, some of which have nothing to do with “what should be”. There are some things we can do to narrow the possibilities down, though: extrapolate past trends into the present and near-term; watch the micro indicators as possible precursors to the macro trend; and try to understand the “why” of what’s happening as well as the “what”. That’s pretty much what we’ve been doing here.
Beyond that, there will always be some risk due to the X factor of human irrationality. We can manage that risk to a certain extent but I don’t think we can avoid it.
As an example, many of us on this forum (and even Rich) were aware that the trends for increases couldn’t continue and there was a problem; but nobody could have forecasted in advance exactly when that peak would pass.
Although your own example was about as close as you can get – you guys were questioning that last $20,000 – but it did involve a certain amount of luck, too. Had you stumbled onto the various internet sources a few months earlier or a few months later your timing would probably have been a little different. I don’t say that to detract from your success because it took a lot of hair to make the decision you made when you did it- I only mention it to point out that had you come to that decision a year earlier you would have left a little more money on the table, just like a few of our other posters.
