I am not so sure that oil will go over $100 by next year or to $200 in the next 10 years, both of which would indeed beat inflation by far. Oil has had a fantastic run, and lots of things are happening already: Slowing US economy, slowing world economy, slowing construction, people buying smaller cars, alternatives coming along, people starting renting and commute less, recycling. Also, there are some products that will be switched to the less energy/oil intensive form, including insulation or air-conditioning heat-sinks in the ground, heat-pumps. Also, moves to natural gas, LNG, tar-sands. Yes, I know the current path looks like unsustainable and cannot be changed in a few years. But so are the supplies, we are not running out of them either that soon. While I don’t dispute peak oil (if it turns down, there is a peak, I guess), there are still a lot of resources. They talk about unconventional reserves being 100x larger than conventional ones, and some of that might be feasible. I mean, look at the tar-sands costing $25. It is not so much different earning $75 or only $50. And natural gas is still 30% cheaper than oil on average. If global warming gets serious, nobody will be allowed to burn excess oil, that will dampen the price.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but you see that there are so many aspects, short-term and long-term, and I just wouldn’t bet too strongly on a commodity that has risen that much over the last years, in the face of a slowing construction and economy (and over-consumption).
